The idea behind this equation, using conditional probability, is that if it logically follows as a possibility that nature created the illusion of an intelligent designer it would have to be by chance, since there is no drive for emergent processes like evolution to design such an illusion, it just happens to follow that it does, which, unless such an intelligent entity manipulates our reasoning to make it appear that it logically follows as a possibility when, in reality, it doesn't, it does logically follow as a possibility. How do we calculate the probability that, by chance, the universe created such a grand illusion (which it did through evolution, other emergent processes and the anthropic principle, if there isn't a designer of at least almost all of this apparently natural apparent illusion, which is present throughout the universe)? We use basic and conditional probability.

First, as basic probability dictates, we must count the possible outcomes. It could be that the cause of any one of these apparently natural apparent illusions could be intelligent design or not intelligent design, so there are two possibilities. For both of these, we branch off and give two possibilities for the second apparently natural apparent illusion, and then again with the third and the fourth and the fifth and so on. After we've given the possibilities for the last branch, we count how many continuous branches were "not intelligent design" from start to finish and how many were "intelligent design", then the ratio, expressed as a simplified fraction is our answer to the probability that all of the apparently natural apparent illusions were not intelligently designed to be apparently natural apparent illusions of an intelligent designer. There is an equation that can give the same ratio, in the form of 1 out of z, with less effort: x^y. In this case, x is 2 and y is the number of apparently natural apparent illusions of intelligent design.

If there are 10 apparently natural apparent illusions - hand, tongue, mouth, lip, eye, nose, ear, Earth, Sun and Jupiter all creating the apparently natural apparent illusion of being designed by and for the purposes of an intelligent designer - the chances of the cause not being intelligent is 1 out of 1024. If you take 100 planets that all seem intelligently designed, the chance of them all being there without having an intelligent designer, whether through nature or not, is one in over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

What about the other way around? Do these numbers apply to the probability of design? No. But why? Because it is reasonable (one in two, as their doing so could either be true or false) a designer would be responsible for all or almost all of the apparently natural apparent illusions of their existence.

I welcome discussion. Please, try to find fault in my reasoning and, if you manage to, please correct me. If I am wrong, feel free to put me right.